CANADIAN POPULATION EXPECTED TO HIT 63 MILLION BY 2073, LIFE EXPECTANCY FALLS FURTHER
Canada’s population is expected to slow in growth but still add a whole lot of people. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data released this morning shows they expect growth to slow. The population is expected to hit 63 million people by 2073, driven almost exclusively by migration. At the same time, the country’s older population is set to explode, which will lead to pressure on resources such as healthcare. Pressures will be less pronounced after they reach their demographic peak, but that will take half a decade.
Canada’s High-Growth Population Driven By Migration
Canada’s population is currently growing very fast. Stat Can estimates 41 million people reside in Canada as of 2024, which was the high-growth projection they made a few years ago. The trend is almost exclusively led by migration. Natural components of growth are working against the country, such as a record low birth rate in 2022, and a life expectancy that has declined for three years in a row.
Canadian Population Estimated To Rise To 64 Million By 2073
High growth isn’t always persistent, so the agency produces various scenarios. These scenarios provide projections for the total population in 2073—ranging from low growth (47.1 million people) to high growth (87.2 million). The agency’s medium projection, the most likely, would reach 62.8 million by 2073—with the growth rate gradually tapering down to 0.79% over the period.
Canadian Population To Age Significantly, Over 75
Total population is one thing, but the demographic makeup is much more important. The share of the population 65 and older is expected to rise from 8.9% in 2023 to a forecast range between 21.9% and 32.3% by 2073, depending on how fast the country ages. The agency notes this trend will become much less pronounced after 2030, once Boomers hit their demographic peak.
Canada’s over 85 population is also set to explode. They see this rising from 896k people in 2023 to a range of 3.3 million to 4.3 million, depending on whether a low or high growth scenario occurs going forward. Stat Can specifically noted this demographic, adding the higher requirements that need to be planned to accommodate, such as expanded healthcare access.
Stat Can is the first to note their projections should not be considered predictions, but scenarios. Although most press releases will lead with the medium-term scenario, the agency emphasizes that analysts should consider the impact of various scenarios, such as economic crisis, war, or natural disaster.
Economic factors are a significant concern, especially since migrants move for opportunity. With Canada’s falling productivity and population growth outpacing its ability to create jobs, many migrants find they were over-promised and undelivered. It’s an issue Stat Can struggles to capture in its population estimates, potentially leading to overestimates.
Story by: Better Dwelling
