TRUDEAU’S IMMIGRATION PLAN HINGES ON MILLIONS OF PEOPLE LEAVING

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s plan to fix immigration in Canada depends on the biggest exodus of people since at least the 1940s — one that many economists doubt is feasible.

Slamming the brakes on record-setting population growth requires 2.4 million non-permanent residents to leave or change status over the next two years, according to the government’s forecasts, which also see 1.5 million new temporary arrivals during that time.

That projected net loss of about 900,000 international students, labourers and other non-permanent residents is a little more than two per cent of Canada’s current population. It would be roughly the equivalent of removing Indiana from the U.S.

The new plan — in which the overall population is set to slightly shrink, once all factors are considered — represents a sharp reversal from a population boom that strained housing, the job market and public services. Once a proponent of mass migration, Trudeau is backtracking amid souring public opinion on immigration and weak polling numbers for his Liberal Party.

But for it to work, large numbers of people must leave when their temporary visas expire. Next year alone, the government projects 1.3 million non-permanent residents will lose their spots — more than double that of any previous year. The vast majority will be expected to depart the country, though the government has earmarked about 158,000 permanent-resident places for them, and others may be able to snag another non-permanent resident visa.

Unlike U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, Trudeau’s government has made no public plans for mass deportations. The progressive prime minister appears unlikely to go that route, though he has promised beefed-up border security to ward off Trump’s tariff threat over undocumented migrants entering the U.S. — currently a relatively small issue at the northern crossing.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem has also raised doubts, saying there’s “uncertainty in just how quickly these things play out.” Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux, a fiscal watchdog, said there’s “significant risk” to the government’s projections, especially the estimated outflows.

Lotin, who founded consulting firm Integrative Trade and Economics, noted that a large number of foreign students and workers will seek ways to remain in Canada. He estimated two million out of the three million temporary residents currently in the country have a desire to remain permanently.

Many are vocal about it: groups of foreign students and workers have been holding rallies across Canada, demanding the right to remain in the country. In Brampton, Ont., a top destination for Indian immigrants, protesters have staged an ongoing encampment, chanting “good enough to work, good enough to stay,” and clutching signs that read “fair pathway to permanent residency.”

‘Serious consequences’

If non-permanent residents can’t successfully transition to permanent residency or obtain a new temporary visa, they may opt to apply for asylum or try to stay without authorization. Canada is already seeing a surge in asylum claims among foreign students, and it doesn’t have a handle on the number of undocumented migrants.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada said there are “no accurate figures” on undocumented people, but has cited academic estimates ranging from 20,000 to half a million. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, warned in 2023 that Statistics Canada was undercounting the population by as much as one million by assuming visa overstayers had left.

The Canada Border Services Agency said foreign nationals are “expected to respect the conditions of their entry and depart at the end” of their authorized stay. When it becomes aware of someone who’s failed to do so, the agency may seek an exclusion order, which compels them to leave and bars them from returning for one year without written authorization.

As of November, the agency had issued removal orders for visa non-compliance to fewer than 4,000 foreign nationals this year, figures that were roughly in line with the previous two years. It said the “serious consequences” of overstaying, including potential impact to the ability to return, “provide a strong incentive to respect our laws.”

Trudeau’s political rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, has demanded a plan for ensuring people leave when their visas expire. He’s also raised alarm that more undocumented migrants may attempt to cross into the U.S., which would heighten tensions with Canada’s largest trading partner.

Cloudy forecasts

While Statistics Canada pushed back against Tal’s estimate last year that it was undercounting the population by as much as one million, it did adjust its methodology to assume that visa overstayers had left after 120 days, rather than 30 days previously. Recently, it said it obtained access to entry and exit data from airports and land crossings and is assessing how to integrate this information.

If the government successfully shrinks the population by 0.2 per cent in 2025 and 2026, that would be a “clear overcorrection,” said Rebekah Young, head of inclusion and resilience economics at Bank of Nova Scotia. She argued a tighter job market would drive higher inflation, while others including David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research said lower consumer demand would ease price pressures. The Bank of Canada, for its part, notes these opposing pressures limit the inflation impact.